Griffith Feeney and Basia Zaba (Contact Griffith Feeney)
Notices of work in progress are posted from time to time and appear in reverse chronological order.
I am posting today a draft Discussion chapter to be included in the report. Basia has not yet fully reviewed this, but has disputed the dispensability of the iota parameter. She and I will resolve this shortly and I'll update this post we have.
We are posting today a draft report, including all chapters except the conclusion, and including Excel files and Splus code used to produce the illustrative application for Uganda. See the online page for links.
Basia has completed a nicely documented spreadsheet implementing the “Bare Bones” model. The corresponding chapter has been slightly updated in the process. Both are available on the online page, as is a slightly updated of the reference list. The spreadsheet is available both as an xls (native Excel) file and as a zip archive of the xls file, in case anyone has problems downloading xls files.
Splus code for the core projection programs is coming along nicely and will be posted early next week along with a revised program design chapter.
We are looking forward to seeing comments on the message board! Click the “Message Board” link above and click “Post new comment” on the page that comes up to post a new comment. Alternatively, click on the maiden “purpose and use of message board” message to tell us what you think of the message board facility. [Note added October 2003. Nobody used the message board, so it was taken down long ago.]
Drafts of three chapters of the report have been prepared and are available online for review. A key feature of the model is that the chances of new infection depend on the proportion of the population already infected. We are particularly interested in feedback on our formulation of this, which is spelled out in the “Bare Bones” chapter. The full model and its implementation are described in the “Model Design” and “Program Design” chapters. Work is progressing on the coding of the programs and on preparing for the Uganda analysis.
Basia Zaba and I are working on a minimalist demographic-epidemiological model for projecting HIV/AIDS. The project proposal may be viewed here. The current table of contents of the report may be viewed here. The current draft of the Model Design chapter may be viewed here. The current reference list is here. These are all PDF files that require the Adobe Acrobat reader program (please let us know if this is a problem). You may post comments, and read comments others have posted here [link disabled]. [Note added October 2003. Except for Marc Artzroni's comment linked on the online page, no one posted comments.]